The objective of this diploma thesis is the investigation of time series of macroscopic road safety parameters in European countries. For this analysis a database containing road accident, demographic and traffic data for the 25 EU member states for the period 1970-2003 was used. Linear and non-linear regression models were developed and resulted in quantification of the impact of each variable to the number of fatalities in road accidents. The results led to two basic conclusions. Firstly, the ratio of the number of road fatalities to the number of vehicles reduces by the increase of the ratio of the number of vehicles to population and secondly, the shape of the fatalities curve (ascending, stable and descending) depends on the ratio of the number of vehicles to population.
|Tags||accident analysis, international comparisons|