A paper titled ‘State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece‘ co-authored by Constantinos Antoniou and George Yannis from NTUA, is now published in Accident Analysis and Prevention Journal. In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960–2011). Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009–2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession.
State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece 2013
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