Spatial dynamics of crash hotspots under autonomous vehicle adoption scenarios, August 2026
A paper titled Spatial dynamics of crash hotspots under autonomous vehicle adoption scenarios authored by Maria Oikonomou and George Yannis has been published in Accident Analysis & Prevention. This Paper conducts a spatial modelling analysis to predict crash hotspot occurrences under different AV deployment scenarios. The study combines microsimulation-derived conflict data, a quantitative crash-risk formulation, validated using field crash data, based on Time-To-Collision (TTC) thresholds, and spatial statistical analysis using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to detect statistically significant hotspots of elevated crash risk. The findings suggest that automation significantly alters the spatial distribution of crash risk, leading to a gradual reduction and spatial diffusion of hotspots as AV penetration increases. However, a temporary rise in the probability that conflict events occur within hotspot areas occurs under moderate automation shares, highlighting the transitional instability of mixed-traffic conditions. Furthermore, intersections and other high-interaction areas remained the most critical locations, while congested segments were associated with a higher probability that conflict events occur within hotspot areas. Consequently, the proposed framework supports data-informed planning and policy decisions during the transition toward automated urban mobility. ![]()





